Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Julien singled to center, Farmer scored, Santana to second.2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 9Farmer doubled to right, Jeffers scored.1–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 8Vierling doubled to center, Pérez scored.0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Torkelson reached on infield single to second, Greene scored, Canha to second.0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Canha singled to right, Rogers scored, Greene to third.0–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Vierling singled to right, Canha scored, Torkelson to second.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Torkelson singled to right, Greene scored, Canha to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Greene doubled to center, Rogers scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Torkelson scored on error, Urshela safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Castro, Carpenter to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Canha homered to left center (374 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MIN +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- DET: Elo 50.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +17 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET 0 Elo | DET 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–8 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.