Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-3
- Matt ManningPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castro homered to right center (413 feet), Martin scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Julien homered to left center (400 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Báez hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored, Keith to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Julien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML MIN +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- DET: Elo 48.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson (no track record yet) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–9 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.