Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson singled to right, Canha scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Canha doubled to left, Greene scored and Kelly scored, Canha to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Báez homered to left (399 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Vázquez homered to left center (381 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Jeffers singled to left, Farmer scored and Santana scored, Julien to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML MIN +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- DET: Elo 46.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −18 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +23 Elo | MIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 2–420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–9 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.