Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting2-4
- Reese OlsonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Semien grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Heim scored, Taveras out at second, Walsh to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML TEX +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- DET: Elo 47.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.