Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras singled to left, Smith scored, Duran to second.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 8Seager grounded into fielder's choice to first, Taveras scored, Semien to second.8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 4Torkelson doubled to center, Carpenter scored.7–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 4Carpenter tripled to center, Greene scored and Canha scored.7–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 4Carter hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Duran grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langford scored, Heim safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Keith.6–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 3García homered to left center (401 feet).5–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 2Canha singled to left, Greene scored.4–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Greene tripled to center, Báez scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | TEX: Jack Leiter (no track record yet) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–10 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.