Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith doubled to center, Duran scored, Carter to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Báez singled to center, Vierling scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Meadows homered to right center (399 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Torkelson scored, Keith safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Seager.4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Heim singled to center, Seager scored and García scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6García doubled to center, Semien scored, Seager to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Carpenter homered to right (426 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1García hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML TEX +120 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- DET: Elo 48.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +18 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.