Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Fletcher singled to right, Duvall scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4d'Arnaud homered to left (365 feet), Ozuna scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML MIA +170 / ATL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +90 Elo | ATL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–16 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9–1 | 11–6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–11 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.