Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Andrew KniznerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Darius VinesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Harris II to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8García homered to right (361 feet), Carter scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Knizner homered to left center (410 feet), Lowe scored and Smith scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Carter homered to right center (398 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Ozuna homered to center (417 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Harris II scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML TEX +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- TEX +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Darius Vines: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–12 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 11–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.