Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry singled to center, Freeman scored, Ramírez to second.2–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Arcia homered to left center (387 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Olson singled to right, Albies scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Harris II doubled to center, Ozuna scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Ozuna doubled to left, Olson scored and Riley scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Kwan homered to right (389 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML CLE +220 / ATL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -234
- CLE +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–6 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8–2 | 11–9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.