Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman singled to right, Fry scored, Freeman to second, J. Naylor to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Fry to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to left, Toro scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5J. Naylor homered to center (410 feet), Kwan scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Schuemann homered to right center (383 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Noda homered to right center (367 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Laureano doubled to left, Ramírez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Ramírez doubled to left, Fry scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML OAK +155 / CLE -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +99 Elo | CLE 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.65th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–38th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 12–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–9 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.