Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to left (421 feet).2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 8Florial singled to right, Bo Naylor scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 8Freeman scored on error, Bo Naylor safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Brown, Bo Naylor safe at second on error.1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8J. Naylor homered to right (359 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Ramírez singled to left, Giménez scored, Ramírez out stretching at second.1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Giménez singled to center, Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Kwan doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored and Florial scored, Rocchio to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Freeman homered to right (331 feet), Brennan scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Toro homered to right (406 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML OAK +140 / CLE -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -149
- OAK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +80 Elo | CLE 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 14–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 11–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–8 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.