Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duran scored on a balk.5–4
- 6Duran scored on a balk.5–4
- 6Duran tripled to center, McGuire scored and Rafaela scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Laureano singled to left, Freeman scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rocchio scored, Fry out at second, Giménez to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Giménez singled to left, Laureano scored, Rocchio to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4J. Naylor singled to right, Fry scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Giménez singled to left, Arias scored, Giménez out stretching at second.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to second, Duran scored, Casas out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML CLE -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 3–622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–5 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7–1 | 8–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.