Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio singled to left, Arias scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Arias doubled to left, Brennan scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 8Ramírez doubled to right, Kwan scored and Rocchio scored on throwing error by right fielder Abreu.4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Brennan homered to right (387 feet), J. Naylor scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML CLE +135 / BOS -159
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -144
- CLE +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −7 | CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.812th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–4 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5–1 | 7–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.