Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3
- Tanner HouckPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ward homered to left center (422 feet), Trout scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Schanuel singled to center, Neto scored, Rendon to second.5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Drury singled to center, Schanuel scored on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela, Drury to second, Hicks safe at third on error.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Drury grounded out to shortstop, Ward scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Hicks singled to center, Schanuel scored, Ward to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Ward grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rendon scored, Trout out at second, Schanuel to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML LAA -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +1 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +34 Elo | BOS 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.010th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.