Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rendon hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Moniak to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Ward grounded out to shortstop, Trout scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Yoshida homered to right center (384 feet), Abreu scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Reyes doubled to center, Duran scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Neto scored, Rendon out at second.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Drury homered to right center (382 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Casas homered to right center (394 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1O'Neill homered to left center (404 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML LAA +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +34 Elo | BOS 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–6 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.