Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, Hamilton scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Ward homered to center (407 feet), Rendon scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 2Yoshida singled to left, Abreu scored, Yoshida to second.0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Abreu singled to right, Hamilton scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Rafaela reached on infield single to shortstop, Valdez scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Casas homered to right center (429 feet), Yoshida scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Yoshida singled to right, Abreu scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML LAA -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +46 Elo | BOS 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 0–429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.