Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Florial singled to right, Giménez scored and Ramírez scored, Bo Naylor to second.10–7
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 28–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 11Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored, Giménez to second.8–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 10Wong hit sacrifice fly to right, Abreu scored.7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10Arias singled to center, Rocchio scored, Brennan to second, Bo Naylor to third.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Giménez singled to center, Freeman scored, Kwan to second.6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Devers doubled to center, Duran scored and Rafaela scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Wong homered to left center (376 feet), Abreu scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Casas homered to right (332 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5J. Naylor singled to right, Giménez scored on fielding error by right fielder Abreu, J. Naylor to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML CLE +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.2 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–4 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6–1 | 7–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.