St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Kyle McCannBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Nootbaar to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Winn hit sacrifice fly to center, Arenado scored, Nootbaar to second, Herrera to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5McCann homered to right center (385 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Donovan grounded out to third, Winn scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2McCann singled to center, Nevin scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML STL -150 / OAK +125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- STL: Elo 54.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +28 Elo | STL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 2.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 3–826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10–2 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.