St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz homered to left center (406 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Walker singled to right, Contreras scored, Winn to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML STL -170 / OAK +145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- STL: Elo 54.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 3.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +5 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +33 Elo | STL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 2.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9–2 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.