St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nevin singled to center, Ruiz scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to left, Langeliers scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Toro grounded out to second, Gelof scored, Langeliers to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Langeliers hit a ground rule double, Nevin scored, Gelof to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Herrera singled to center, Arenado scored and Contreras scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Contreras doubled to left, Nootbaar scored, Arenado to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Ruiz homered to left center (412 feet), Schuemann scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- STL: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 2.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 3–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11–2 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.