Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Naylor doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored, Giménez scored and Rocchio scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Butler singled to center, Noda scored, Gelof to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Arias singled to right, Brennan scored, Laureano to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Rooker homered to left (368 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Giménez singled to left, Rocchio scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Brennan homered to right center (370 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML OAK +145 / CLE -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +13 | OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +104 Elo | CLE 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–37th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–11 | 16–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–10 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.