Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5
- Cam BooserPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Passed ball by catcher Reese McGuire. Ramírez scored.4–6
- 7Ramírez scored, J. Naylor stole second, J. Naylor safe at third on throwing error by catcher McGuire.4–6
- 7Ramírez scored, J. Naylor stole second, J. Naylor safe at third on throwing error by catcher McGuire.4–6
- 6Duran singled to left, McGuire scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Rafaela grounded out to second, Hamilton scored, McGuire to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–5
- 3Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Refsnyder scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Refsnyder tripled to left, Devers scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Ramírez homered to right (384 feet), Arias scored, Kwan scored and Freeman scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Brennan homered to right (361 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML BOS +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +2 | BOS: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +45 Elo | CLE 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 18–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13–2 | 14–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–7 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.