Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran scored on error, Abreu safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Cruz.6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Abreu singled to right, Refsnyder scored, Abreu to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5McGuire singled to left, Abreu scored and Wong scored, Reyes to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Abreu singled to center, Duran scored, Refsnyder to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Refsnyder doubled to left, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Hayes hit sacrifice fly to right, Joe scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML BOS +130 / PIT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +6 Elo | PIT 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11–1 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.