Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo singled to left, Alvarez scored and McNeil scored, Taylor to second.1–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 8Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alonso scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Bader homered to left (392 feet), Taylor scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Taylor singled to center, Lindor scored and Alonso scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Marte homered to left center (383 feet), Short scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Reynolds reached on infield single to shortstop, Davis scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML PIT +135 / NYM -159
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -144
- PIT +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −10 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +24 Elo | NYM 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–7 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.