Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7McNeil doubled to left, Wendle scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Alonso scored on a balk, Wendle to third on a balk.1–2
- 7Alonso scored on a balk, Wendle to third on a balk.1–2
- 7Wendle doubled to left, Lindor scored, Alonso to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Reynolds singled to right, Williams scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML PIT -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +25 Elo | NYM 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.