Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (366 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 8Nimmo walked, McNeil scored, Bader to second, Baty to third.0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 40–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 8Bader reached on infield single to third, Alonso scored, Baty to second, McNeil to third.0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML KC -110 / NYM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.814th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–1 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.