Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.11–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–6
- 8Marte homered to center (390 feet).11–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 6Alonso homered to left center (401 feet).11–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 111–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 6Renfroe doubled to left, Fermin scored and Velázquez scored.11–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 5Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.9–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 4Fermin singled to left, Hampson scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 4Perez homered to center (384 feet), Loftin scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Loftin singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Alonso homered to left (411 feet).4–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 2Perez singled to left, Blanco scored and Witt Jr. scored, Loftin to second.4–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML KC +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −9 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–1 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.