Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to center (404 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Baty doubled to center, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Stewart singled to right, Alvarez scored, McNeil to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4McNeil singled to left, Baty scored, Alvarez to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Nimmo doubled to center, Bader scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Perez homered to left center (433 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML KC +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −16 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–4 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7–1 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–0 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.