Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Alika WilliamsBatting1-1
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olivares grounded out to third, Williams scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Valdez doubled to right, Refsnyder scored and Yoshida scored, Dalbec thrown out at home.8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Rafaela homered to left center (407 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Refsnyder homered to right center (390 feet), Abreu scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to second, Dalbec scored, Valdez out at second.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Casas homered to left center (413 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Abreu homered to right (421 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML BOS -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +3 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 3–28th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10–1 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–3 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.