Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Joe homered to left (373 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Yoshida homered to right center (395 feet), Reyes scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Triolo singled to left, Hayes scored, Bart to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Dalbec grounded into fielder's choice to first, Refsnyder scored, Yoshida out at second, Casas to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Abreu reached on infield single to third, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML BOS -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +21 Elo | PIT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 3–312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10–1 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.