Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wong singled to left, Abreu scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 9Valdez hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Neill scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Devers hit a ground rule double, Rafaela scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Rafaela singled to left, Reyes scored, Rafaela to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Wong homered to left (397 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Devers homered to left center (403 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Wong homered to center (416 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Abreu doubled to left, Devers scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML BOS +120 / CLE -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 7–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 18–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13–1 | 14–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–7 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.