Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sixto SanchezPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harris II doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Arraez scored and De La Cruz scored on error, Bell safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Olson, Bell safe at second on error, Chisholm Jr. safe at third on error.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Ozuna singled to right, Olson scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2J. Sánchez homered to right (431 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Ozuna singled to left, Harris II scored, Olson to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Acuña Jr. scored on a balk, Harris II to second on a balk.0–1
- 1Acuña Jr. scored on a balk, Harris II to second on a balk.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML MIA +185 / ATL -227
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.1%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -198
- MIA +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | MIA: Sixto Sanchez (no track record yet) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +108 Elo | ATL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 8–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–18 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11–1 | 11–8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–13 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.