Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Laureano hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.4–2
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 11J. Naylor doubled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Kelenic singled to center, Harris II scored, Kelenic to second, Williams thrown out at home.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8d'Arnaud hit a ground rule double, Ozuna scored, Harris II to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Kwan stole home, Ramírez stole second.2–0
- 8Kwan stole home, Ramírez stole second.2–0
- 8Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arias scored, Giménez out at second, Kwan to third.1–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML CLE +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 10–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–7 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9–2 | 11–10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.