Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Kevin NewmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Haniger homered to left center (389 feet), Rojas scored, Rodríguez scored and Raleigh scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Newman homered to left center (398 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Garver homered to left (362 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rojas homered to right center (405 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +13 Elo | SEA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 7–612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13–1 | 7–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.