Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar doubled to right, Arenado scored and Goldschmidt scored, Pagés to third.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Gorman singled to left, Winn scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Contreras scored on Montgomery wild pitch, Arenado to second on wild pitch by Montgomery.1–2
- 6Contreras scored on Montgomery wild pitch, Arenado to second on wild pitch by Montgomery.1–2
- 6Arenado singled to left, Donovan scored, Contreras to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, Alexander to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +29 Elo | ARI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 4–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12–1 | 8–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–5 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.