Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno singled to right, McCarthy scored, Suárez to third.17–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play17–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 117–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking17–1
- 9Suárez singled to left, Carroll scored, McCarthy to second.16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–1
- 8Alexander homered to right (343 feet), Walker scored, Smith scored and Moreno scored.15–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play15–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 8Smith grounded into fielder's choice to first, McCarthy scored, Suárez out at second, Walker to third.11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 8Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Carroll scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 7Newman singled to center, Grichuk scored and Moreno scored on fielding error by center fielder Fitzgerald, Alexander safe at third on error.9–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Moreno doubled to center, Walker scored and Suárez scored, Grichuk to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Grichuk doubled to left, Suárez scored and Walker scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Walker singled to right, Marte scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Soler homered to left (410 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML ARI +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- SF: Elo 50.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +4 Elo | SF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 4–37th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–7 SF in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.