Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Logan AllenPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski singled to right, Slater scored and Soler scored, Chapman to third.0–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Flores doubled to left, Lee scored and Wade Jr. scored, Soler to third.0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML ARI +130 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- SF: Elo 51.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–6 SF in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.