Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- DL HallPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Siani scored.12–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–4
- 9Frelick grounded into double play, second to first, Turang scored, Chourio out at second.12–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 9Chourio singled to center, Perkins scored, Turang to third.11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 7Chourio scored on error, Frelick safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Winn.10–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 6Adames scored on Gallegos wild pitch, Hoskins to second on wild pitch by Gallegos.9–4
- 6Adames scored on Gallegos wild pitch, Hoskins to second on wild pitch by Gallegos.9–4
- 6Hoskins singled to right, Contreras scored, Adames to third.8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Adames doubled to left, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Contreras singled to right, Chourio scored, Frelick to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Chourio homered to right (370 feet).5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Turang homered to right center (387 feet), Perkins scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML MIL +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- STL: Elo 45.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −8 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +35 Elo | MIL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 6–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–5 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.