Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting0-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Contreras singled to center, Perkins scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Donovan walked, Winn scored, Herrera to second, Siani to third.1–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 41–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Perkins scored, Frelick to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 307–2 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 6–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–5 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.