Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith homered to right center (406 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker scored and Grichuk scored.14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–1
- 5Newman homered to left (390 feet), Smith scored.10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Smith doubled to left, Grichuk scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Grichuk singled to center, Moreno scored, Grichuk to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Moreno singled to left, Marte scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Walker homered to left center (418 feet), Marte scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to right, McCarthy scored, Marte to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Contreras homered to center (439 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML ARI +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- STL: Elo 50.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +1 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 4–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–12 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12–1 | 7–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.