Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-5
- Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Miller singled to left, Perkins scored and Turang scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML MIL +135 / STL -159
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- STL: Elo 46.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -144
- MIL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +16 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–2 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–10 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–6 | 7–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–5 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.