Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right center (425 feet), Goldschmidt scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Goldschmidt homered to right center (432 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Nootbaar singled to left, Siani scored and Winn scored, Donovan to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Suárez hit a ground rule double, Walker scored, Pederson to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Suárez singled to left, Pederson scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML ARI -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- STL: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 3–622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11–1 | 7–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.