Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-4
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto singled to right, Lee scored, Chapman to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Lee doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Bailey homered to right (407 feet), Flores scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Newman singled to center, Alexander scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Alexander doubled to center, Suárez scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Bailey doubled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Flores to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Flores hit sacrifice fly to center, Wade Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −5 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +29 Elo | ARI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 4–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–7 SF in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.