Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Semien singled to center, Langford scored, Heim to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Urías homered to left center (398 feet), Moore scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Smith homered to right (364 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Lowe homered to right center (383 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1France homered to right (368 feet), Rodríguez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −23 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +1 Elo | TEX 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–15–2 | 11–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–10 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.