Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4
- Dane DunningPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Rodríguez homered to left center (435 feet), Rojas scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Raleigh homered to right (392 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13–2 | 11–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–9 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.