Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-5
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carter tripled to right, García scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Heim singled to right, Smith and Langford scored, Heim safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Haniger.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Carter homered to right center (379 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4García homered to center (416 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Haniger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rojas scored, Polanco out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML SEA +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +36 Elo | TEX 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–13 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14–2 | 11–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–9 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.