Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte doubled to center, Newman scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Suárez doubled to left, Pederson scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Rodríguez singled to center, Rivas scored, Rojas to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Walker homered to left center (422 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Rojas homered to right (349 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML ARI +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +15 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +58 Elo | SEA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 9–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15–1 | 7–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–4 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.