Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley reached on infield single to pitcher, Kelenic scored on throwing error by pitcher Muñoz, Riley to second, Albies safe at third on error.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Albies singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Kelenic to second.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Moore doubled to left, Haniger scored, Raley to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Polanco homered to right (349 feet), Rojas scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13–3 | 7–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.