Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Singleton hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Diaz singled to right, Bregman scored and Tucker scored, Peña to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Peña hit by pitch, Altuve scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Singleton homered to right (345 feet), Peña scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Singleton scored, Altuve to second on passed ball by Bo Naylor, Dubón to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.2–1
- 3Singleton scored, Altuve to second on passed ball by Bo Naylor, Dubón to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.2–1
- 3Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Giménez doubled to right, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML CLE +120 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- CLE +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 5–1026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–7 | 9–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12–2 | 9–16–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–5 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.