Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Caratini homered to right center (370 feet), Dubón scored.9–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 10Fry doubled to left, J. Naylor scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 6Florial homered to right (373 feet), Brennan scored and Freeman scored.8–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–8
- 6Giménez homered to right center (401 feet), Kwan scored.5–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 4Singleton homered to right (431 feet), Diaz scored and Loperfido scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Loperfido singled to center, Peña scored and Tucker scored, Diaz to second.3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Bregman homered to left center (410 feet), Singleton scored and Altuve scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1J. Naylor homered to left (331 feet), Kwan scored and Giménez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML CLE +135 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -143
- CLE +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −21 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 4–928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–7 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11–2 | 8–15–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–4 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.